Revise the default-strategy story after the cap48 reversal

Persist the larger 48-track benchmark where high_energy overtook hybrid, and downgrade the previously overconfident default-strategy claim to a conditional recommendation pending broader validation.

Constraint: Only documentation changes are allowed because benchmark outputs remain outside version control
Rejected: Keep asserting hybrid as fully settled default after cap48 | The 48-track capped benchmark materially contradicts that stronger claim
Confidence: high
Scope-risk: narrow
Directive: Resolve the hybrid vs high_energy default question with larger, multi-seed, style-aware benchmarks before making a final hard default claim
Tested: Verified /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2/report.json; verified high_energy eval.json; verified docs now record high_energy=24/0.9167/1.0 and hybrid=24/0.7917/1.0
Not-tested: Multi-seed or style-balanced follow-up benchmark beyond the single cap48 run

@@ -2,6 +2,30 @@
 
 
 ## 2026-06-02
 ## 2026-06-02
 
 
+### Stage: 收尾 cap48 top2 真实 FMA 对照并发现 high_energy 反超
+
+完成项：
+- 读取 `/tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2/report.json`
+- 读取：
+  - `/tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2/hybrid/fma_reports_smoke/eval.json`
+  - `/tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2/high_energy/fma_reports_smoke/eval.json`
+- 更新：
+  - [open-dataset-workflow.md](./open-dataset-workflow.md)
+  - [session-handoff.md](./session-handoff.md)
+  - [CHANGELOG.md](./CHANGELOG.md)
+
+最终结果（subset=48, `max_test_queries=24`）：
+- `high_energy`: `num_queries=24`, `top1=0.9167`, `topk=1.0`
+- `hybrid`: `num_queries=24`, `top1=0.7917`, `topk=1.0`
+
+结论：
+- cap48 与 cap24 / cap32 给出了不同方向的结果
+- 这意味着“默认策略已经完全固定为 hybrid”的说法需要降级为**暂时性结论**
+- 当前更稳妥的表述应是：
+  - `hybrid` 仍可保留为保守默认
+  - `high_energy` 已成为必须严肃对待的强竞争方案
+  - 下一步需要更大样本 / 多 seed / style-aware benchmark 再定最终默认
+
 ### Stage: 启动 cap48 top2 真实 FMA 对照并记录运行阶段
 ### Stage: 启动 cap48 top2 真实 FMA 对照并记录运行阶段
 
 
 完成项：
 完成项：

@@ -189,6 +189,23 @@ flowchart LR
 - `hybrid` 在更大真实子集上仍明显领先
 - `hybrid` 在更大真实子集上仍明显领先
 - `high_energy` 虽然可作为高能区偏置策略，但稳定性不足以成为默认
 - `high_energy` 虽然可作为高能区偏置策略，但稳定性不足以成为默认
 - 当前默认策略已经可以稳定写死为 **`hybrid`**
 - 当前默认策略已经可以稳定写死为 **`hybrid`**
+
+### 更新：cap48 top2 对照（subset=48, `max_test_queries=24`）
+
+继续扩大到 48 首真实 FMA 子集后，出现了**结果反转**：
+
+| 排名 | 策略 | num_queries | top1 | topk |
+|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|
+| 1 | `high_energy` | 24 | 0.9167 | 1.0 |
+| 2 | `hybrid` | 24 | 0.7917 | 1.0 |
+
+这轮结果说明：
+- 前面 cap24 / cap32 支持 `hybrid`
+- 但 cap48 上 `high_energy` 反超
+- 因此当前结论应从“默认策略已完全固定”调整为：
+  - **`hybrid` 仍是当前保守默认**
+  - **`high_energy` 已成为强竞争方案**
+  - 下一步必须做更大样本或多随机种子复核，不能只靠单轮 cap48 就完全改默认
 /usr/local/miniconda3/bin/python evaluate.py --data data/external_ingested/fma/manifests --model data/models_fma_smoke/best_model.pt --index-prefix data/index_fma_smoke/reference --split test --device cpu --fast-eval --output-json reports/fma-smoke/eval.json
 /usr/local/miniconda3/bin/python evaluate.py --data data/external_ingested/fma/manifests --model data/models_fma_smoke/best_model.pt --index-prefix data/index_fma_smoke/reference --split test --device cpu --fast-eval --output-json reports/fma-smoke/eval.json
 /usr/local/miniconda3/bin/python scripts/generate_artifacts.py --eval-json reports/fma-smoke/eval.json --config-json reports/fma-smoke/config.json --output-dir reports/fma-smoke --model-version fma-smoke --data-version fma_local
 /usr/local/miniconda3/bin/python scripts/generate_artifacts.py --eval-json reports/fma-smoke/eval.json --config-json reports/fma-smoke/config.json --output-dir reports/fma-smoke --model-version fma-smoke --data-version fma_local
 ```
 ```

@@ -459,7 +459,7 @@ cap32 top2 最终结论：
 
 
 ---
 ---
 
 
-## 12. cap48 top2 对照实验（进行中）
+## 12. cap48 top2 对照实验（已完成）
 
 
 为继续扩展真实数据证据链，已启动更大的 FMA top2 对照：
 为继续扩展真实数据证据链，已启动更大的 FMA top2 对照：
 
 
@@ -479,15 +479,15 @@ cd /workspace/acr-engine
   --output-json /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2/report.json
   --output-json /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2/report.json
 ```
 ```
 
 
-当前 fresh evidence：
+最终结果：
 
 
 | 项目 | 状态 |
 | 项目 | 状态 |
 |---|---|
 |---|---|
 | `subset_size` | `48` |
 | `subset_size` | `48` |
 | `max_test_queries` | `24` |
 | `max_test_queries` | `24` |
+| `high_energy` | `num_queries=24`, `top1=0.9167`, `topk=1.0` |
 | `hybrid` | `num_queries=24`, `top1=0.7917`, `topk=1.0` |
 | `hybrid` | `num_queries=24`, `top1=0.7917`, `topk=1.0` |
-| `high_energy` | `evaluate.py --max-queries 24` |
-| `report.json` | 尚未生成 |
+| `report.json` | 已生成 |
 
 
 恢复检查命令：
 恢复检查命令：
 
 
@@ -495,9 +495,14 @@ cd /workspace/acr-engine
 pgrep -af 'ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2|external_adapters.py smoke-local fma /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2|evaluate.py --data /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2|run_demo.py build-index --data /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2|train.py --data /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2'
 pgrep -af 'ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2|external_adapters.py smoke-local fma /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2|evaluate.py --data /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2|run_demo.py build-index --data /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2|train.py --data /tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2'
 ```
 ```
 
 
-优先等待文件：
-- `/tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2/high_energy/fma_reports_smoke/eval.json`
-- `/tmp/ab_smoke_seg_cap48_top2/report.json`
+cap48 top2 最终结论：
+- `high_energy`：`24 / 0.9167 / 1.0`
+- `hybrid`：`24 / 0.7917 / 1.0`
+- 这轮结果与 cap24 / cap32 不一致，说明当前默认策略结论**还不能视为彻底封板**
+- 下一步应优先做：
+  1. 更大 subset（如 64+）
+  2. 多 seed 复跑
+  3. style-aware bucket benchmark
 - `b766c74` Make open-dataset manifests trainable end to end
 - `b766c74` Make open-dataset manifests trainable end to end
 - `fa23144` Add a single-page open dataset workflow for training prep
 - `fa23144` Add a single-page open dataset workflow for training prep
 - `af33be3` Condense docs and add manifest validation before training
 - `af33be3` Condense docs and add manifest validation before training